A year on, the war has also divided the cyber criminal underworld into factions. Where once, Russian speaking cybercriminals joined forces to implement organised attacks, criminal groups have been disrupted by insider leaks and division (e.g. the demise of the Conti ransomware gang who declared allegiance to Russia, only to be outed and doxxed by a Ukrainian member).
Large scale ransomware decreased in 2022 as these gangs were splintered, but as criminals struggle to make ends meet, they will likely turn to petty crime like card fraud as a means to survive.
Russia has experienced an IT ‘brain drain’ that is predicted to decentralise organised crime, but indications that the Kremlin might decriminalise certain cybercrimes could encourage increased targeting of Western entities for financial gain.
Our advice: stay vigilant. The threat landscape is volatile so keep your security controls in check and don’t be left exposed.
Original article:  foreignpolicy.com and recordedfuture.com